
China's Three Gorges Dam
The German sociologist Ulrich Beck has famously posited that modern societies, falsely believing that they can master nature and control their environment, have provoked a range of unforeseeable processes such as climate change, or nuclear catastrophes that, so it turned out, they can’t control after all. He deduced from his observations the universal thesis that all large-scale social action, especially technological innovation, has ‘unintended consequences’ that might well be beyond human comprehension and human power to counteract. Environmental disasters, themselves the consequence of climate change, are a case in point. Human societies are largely incapable of dealing with tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, nuclear holocaust, extreme levels of air pollution and increasing amounts of industrial and household waste. What to one political group or lobby is a wonderful feat of human skill, as is China’s Three Gorges Dam, for instance, to the government, is to others a disaster waiting to happen. Pollution, landslides and other catastrophic events might be in stall for the area upstream of the dam, environmentalists says.
Caution must be the order of the day in the sciences; technological advances should be treated with a modicum of suspicion and a huge amount of respect for the mighty forces they might be able to unleash. Think Large Hadron Collider: a number of members of the scientific community still believe that dark matter could be created here – which would be the end of the world.
It was therefore with a mounting degree of surprise and incredulity that I read Laura Samataria’s article about James Martin in the recent issue of Sublime. In this article, Martin, who has founded the James Martin 21st Century School at Oxford University, talks about the first computer networks and ‘how it all began’. The most exciting and important areas of study in the 21st century will be stem-cell research and neuroscience, Martin says:
Today people say you can’t genetically modify humans because they’ll pass their genes on to your children, for ever, and things are going to go wrong. You don’t want to have things that go wrong being passed on to your descendants. But we’ve now discovered that we can insert a 24th chromosome into the body. Every human being has 23 pairs of chromosomes, and it’s very easy to insert a 24th. You can put any genes you want into that chromosome, but it won’t ever be passed on to your children. Stem-cell research makes the genetic modification of humans an acceptable thing to do. It’s not going to be long before you’ll have people saying, ‘I couldn’t give my daughter blue eyes …’ ‘Can I make my son more intelligent? Is there anything I can do with his genes that will make him a better, more capable person?’ We’re around the time where we will be ‘enhancing’ human beings.
Having Beck in the back of my mind, such obvious enthusiasm for technological innovation at the cellular level makes me more than a bit uncomfortable. It sounds awfully like a perpetuation of the myth of modern man who controls everything. The 21st Century School has a research focus on risk and the future of humanity, so one shouldn’t assume that Martin & Co. are a bunch of future-crazy scientists who innovate for the sake of science alone. Human advancement is very much at the heart of this research project. Nonetheless, the feeling of eerie discomfort persists; read this passage here and maybe you’ll know what I mean:
The Singularity [when computers become more intelligent than humans] is an inevitable consequence of computer intelligence feeding on itself. Computers will become increasingly successful at imitating aspects of human intelligence, and this will help produce systems that enable humans to use deep NHL intelligence when it reaches the Singularity level. Computers will become really interesting when they become intelligent, but since computer intelligence is so different, we’ll need a close synergy between the two.
I began to muse a bit about my strong reaction and discomfort whilst reading. No doubt I am sceptical because I don’t know a lot about these issues, and because these subjects do represent amazing possibilities for the future but also challenges for the present. In order to achieve true progress in stem-cell research, nanoscience and neuroscience and all the rest of it, and in order for these advances to not simultaneously signify the end of the world (hyperbolically speaking), researchers and staff involved in these projects must know a lot. Risk assessment must be through the roof with undertakings like this! (The same issue of Sublime also has an article on risk assessment, suprise surprise.)
But there is more to it: I simply cannot imagine that any researcher can undertake projects like this because no one around me is doing really important research that actually engages with the world we will live in 50 years from now. We don’t even have a conception of dynamic change in our research; we mostly look back on what has already happened. Most of the time, I think, we aren’t intelligent enough to be able to think ahead. But imagine the competent and intelligent individual involved in the kind of extraordinary research Martin talks about! He speaks of ‘the Oxford level of quality’:
Most academics work on only one discipline. They do a PhD on a single subject and they write papers for the journal of that discipline. But all of these big subjects involve a multiplicity of disciplines. You need to have interdisciplinary research that connects together other disciplines, and that research needs to be done at a high level of quality, an Oxford level of quality.
Multidisciplinarity is of course the way to go and is increasingly spreading across British academia. What should also spread is this kind of modernist belief in human capabilities. Access to the ‘Oxford level of quality’ should not spread, however. We are talking about the crème de la crème of bright minds here, and that, by definition, is a small group. They should, of course, be from all sorts of financial and family backgrounds. (Sometimes it seems to me that Britain would sooner get into stem-cell research big-time than attempt to change the class system, but that’s not really the issue right now.)
Yes, I said a minute ago that something modernist should spread. I am saying that in a climate in which everything I hear is how awful modernity has been. It’s all about postmodernity, withdrawing from wanting to control the world, wearing ethnic clothing and thinking deep thoughts somewhere in the wilderness. (Excuse the sarcasm. – It’s true though.) Of course I know about the unintended consequences of a lot of things, so trust me, I am not advocating a blind faith in progress and seizing control for its own sake. And I will never be convinced that ‘enhancing human beings’ is such a great idea – that’s still just spooky to me. But I am beginning to think that it isn’t all wrong to believe in the fact that human beings can learn a lot, can work multidimensionally, can move out of the feeble-mindedness that we seem to be encouraging at universities today, and that we all of us can emancipate once more, can set ourselves free to think creatively for and about our own future.
As I am beginning to understand, it is precisely this belief that is missing in Beck’s thesis and similar conceptions: Meaning to offer a more realistic assessment of what humans can actually achieve in the sciences and subsequently control, Beck implicitly advocates scepticism of innovation, creativity and ultimately change. And that cannot be the answer either. Cautious, very high-level research with excellent people on the team, that seems to be the way to go.